Copper just crossed a line that will show up in your next round of quotes.

Copper just crossed a line that will show up in your next round of quotes. Overnight in London, LME copper closed at $14,664.5/t. In Shanghai, futures pushed back above ¥110,000/t. But the futures screen isn't the real story. The physical market is. Here are the upstream signals signaling a Q4 squeeze: 📈 The Yangshan Premium: Hit $121/t (a 4-year high) — this is the premium Chinese importers are paying for metal delivered now. ⚠️ Treatment Charges (TCs): Plunged to -$21.9/t. Chinese smelters are effectively paying to process concentrate, a level that historically precedes severe output cuts. 📊 Contagion: Tin ($34,155/t) and Nickel ($16,388/t) are moving the exact same way. What this means if you source wiring, motors, or transformers from China: Hidden Costs: Expect Q4 quotes to carry overt surcharges — or quietly wider tolerances on product weight and grade to offset costs. Shorter Validity: Suppliers who used to hold prices for 60-90 days will re-quote sooner. Lock metal-linked formulas (LME + processing fee) into your contracts now, not at renewal. Vendor Risk: Tight TC cycles squeeze mid-tier smelters and processors first. The factory you negotiated with in June may not be the one you renegotiate with in January. At Truve, we watch upstream signals like premiums and inventory levels so buyers see cost shifts before they land in a PO. In this cycle, your November price is being set today. How are your suppliers handling Q4 quotes? Are they holding prices or actively adding raw material surcharges? Let’s discuss below. 👇 #SupplyChain #Procurement #Copper #ChinaManufacturing #Commodities