Market Analysis Report on the Containerized Freight Index (Europe Route) – September 2026

Report Date: September 27, 2026 Data Sources: Shanghai Shipping Exchange, Shenwan Futures, major financial media 1. Summary of Core Views In September 2026, the Containerized Freight Index (Europe Route) showed a wide-ranging oscillation characterized by a “game between off-season correction and geopolitical premium.” As of September 21, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Settlement Index (Europe Route) stood at 2,610.55 points, down 10.2% week-on-week, confirming the downward trend in freight rates during the traditional seasonal off-season. However, affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the slow resumption of Red Sea shipping, the market risk premium remained significant, leading to periodic rebounds in the futures market. The current main market logic lies in the game between the loose supply-demand fundamentals in the off-season and supply disruptions caused by geopolitical emergencies. 2. Market Review 2.1 Spot Freight Rate Trend According to the latest data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, spot freight rates on the Europe route accelerated their decline in late September. Index performance: As of September 21, the SCFI Europe route index closed at 2,610.55 points, with a weekly decline of 10.2%. Carrier quotations: Major liner companies such as Maersk became more aggressive in their cargo solicitation strategy before the National Day holiday. The quotation for a large container to Rotterdam in Week 40 fell to USD 3,100, down USD 300 week-on-week, with the decline widening from the previous week. This indicates that carriers are locking in cargo in advance by cutting prices to cope with the post-holiday cargo volume gap, intensifying market expectations of short-term freight rate declines. 2.2 Futures Market Performance The main contract of Containerized Freight Index (Europe Route) futures showed high volatility in September. Oscillation logic: At the beginning of the month, affected by the escalation of the U.S.-Iran conflict, the main contract rose sharply; subsequently, as the geopolitical premium faded and off-season expectations materialized, prices fell rapidly. Recent rebound: After mid-September, affected by renewed Houthi activities and typhoons disrupting port operations, EC contracts strengthened against the trend, with a single-day gain exceeding 8%. The market still has repair expectations for the October contract, but overall, constrained by the spot decline, upside room is limited. 3. Driver Analysis 3.1 Seasonal Off-Season Pressure (Dominant Factor) Cargo volume decline: September is the traditional off-season after the end of Europe’s Christmas stocking peak season. Historical data show that Europe route cargo volume in September falls by an average of 8% month-on-month, and freight rates can fall by an average of 40% in a single month. As China’s National Day long holiday